Lesson 89 • Design Systems that Survive Error
I’m pointing ahead at the storms and warning you — us — to batten down the hatches.
Investor sentiment is at its most pessimistic in three decades. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has hit its highest levels this century. Google just lost a landmark antitrust case over its ad tech dominance, which is not something I thought I’d read any time soon. We’re in historic times, and ours is volatile work by default.
I suppose this is what inspired me to write for the first time since February. I want to warn you: if you’re feeling1 certain about your job in tech, you shouldn’t.
Certainty is a code smell, but if your response to the lack of it is — like mine — vibe and ride the current, it’s time now to look on all the storms on the horizon and prepare to sail into them.
That is, uncertainty is no longer a cross wind, it’s the direction.
You cannot count on economic recovery. You cannot count on institutional trust. You cannot count on your role existing next quarter. I am not writing you to inspire your resilience, but to make you aware of your exposure to the elements. Read ahead and you won’t find motivation and a backing track. I’m pointing ahead at the storms and warning you — us — to batten down the hatches.
So, what now? Make sure the boat can take the hit. Expect uncertainty. Assume you’ll be wrong. Not fatally, not forever—but wrong enough that the system around you needs to absorb it. That’s the work now: design systems that survive error. Canary deployment. Cheap reversion. Cheap course correction. You don’t need a perfect plan. You need a structure that can take a hit and a habit of moving before the market finishes clearing its throat.
Premeditatio malorum2 is the rehearsal of things going wrong. Now’s high time to practice losing everything—status, wealth, favor—until loss no longer shocks you. Then, when the waves crash over the sides, you can skip the paralysis of uh-oh and react with a clear head.
Furbelow
❤ this letter, and comment. Leave a coin in the algorithmic hat.
Edit: I didn’t catch this until after I sent it.
That’s “premeditation of evils.” Think “hope for the best, plan for the worst.” Stoicism 101.